“Ships of the World, start your engines,” Donald Trump declared on Truth Social on Sunday. “Let the oil flow!”
This was the president’s way of announcing that the United States and Iran had reached an agreement to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Although the exact details have not been released, the deal reportedly includes a 60-day cease-fire during which the two sides will negotiate a more permanent settlement.
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In 2016, the AI pioneer Geoffrey Hinton declared that “people should stop training radiologists now” because “it’s just completely obvious that within five years, deep learning is going to do better than radiologists.” He was half right.
The whole world expects President Trump to end the Iran war any day now. Trump keeps insisting that he’s in no rush to do so. Through it all, the oil markets remain surprisingly calm. These facts are all related.
When the war broke out, experts warned that if the Strait of Hormuz remained closed for more than a few weeks, oil prices would spike to $150 or $200 a barrel. The strait has now been closed for three months.
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Updated at 1:49 p.m. ET on February 20, 2026
The Trump tariffs are dead. Long live the Trump tariffs?
This morning, in a 6–3 opinion, the Supreme Court struck down the bulk of the president’s sweeping global tariffs.
Cue the bankers’ equivalent of white smoke: Donald Trump has finally named his pick to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve. This morning, Trump announced that he will nominate Kevin Warsh, a former Wall Street banker and Fed governor, to lead America’s central bank. Unlike some of the other contenders for the job, Warsh does not have a track record as an avowed Trump loyalist. For that reason, the response to his nomination from mainstream figures has been mostly positive.
So, about all that Venezuelan oil. Although President Trump has declared that America’s oil companies will soon “go in” to Venezuela and “spend billions of dollars” to rebuild that country’s petroleum industry, the administration is making two huge assumptions. First, that unleashing Venezuelan oil would yield lower energy prices for American consumers and giant profits for American companies.
A company that most people have never heard of is among the year’s best-performing technology firms—and a symbol of the complex, interconnected, and potentially catastrophic ways in which AI companies do business these days.
CoreWeave’s IPO in March was the largest of any tech start-up since 2021, and the company’s share price has subsequently more than doubled, outperforming even the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks.
Few policies disgust academic economists quite like rent control. In the 1970s, the Swedish economist Assar Lindbeck famously described it as the “most efficient technique presently known to destroy a city—except for bombing.” In a 2012 poll of prominent economists, just 2 percent said that rent-control laws have had “a positive impact” on the “amount and quality of broadly affordable rental housing in cities that have used them.
If there is any field in which the rise of AI is already said to be rendering humans obsolete—in which the dawn of superintelligence is already upon us—it is coding. This makes the results of a recent study genuinely astonishing.
In the study, published in July, the think tank Model Evaluation & Threat Research randomly assigned a group of experienced software developers to perform coding tasks with or without AI tools.
The Trump economy doesn’t look so hot after all. This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released revised data showing that, over the past three months, the U.S. labor market experienced its worst quarter since 2010, other than during the first year of the coronavirus pandemic. The timing was awkward. Hours earlier, President Donald Trump had announced a huge new slate of tariffs, set to take effect next week.
Of all the elements of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, perhaps none is as obviously self-defeating as getting rid of tax credits for clean energy. That decision will not simply set back the fight against climate change. Congressional Republicans could also be setting America up for the worst energy-affordability crisis since the 1970s. Unlike then, this time we’ll have imposed it on ourselves.
Electricity demand in the United States is rising faster than it has in at least two decades.
If Donald Trump were trying to lose his trade war with China, it’s hard to see what he would be doing differently. The president’s gambit is likely to strengthen China’s geopolitical position, embolden Beijing militarily, and diminish both the United States’ global standing and its economy.
Earlier this month, Trump increased tariffs on all goods from China to 145 percent. China, in turn, responded with 125 percent tariffs on American goods, plus more targeted measures.
Some presidents spend their first few weeks in office trying to make good on their central campaign promise; Donald Trump has instead done everything he can to avoid having to follow through on his. A controversial campaign pledge to enact big, universal tariffs that would transform the global-trade system and usher in American prosperity has been whittled down to a set of hollow threats designed to extract mostly symbolic concessions from America’s neighbors.
The debate over immigration in America has taken a strange turn recently. Elon Musk, Donald Trump’s wealthiest backer and a prolific spreader of dehumanizing anti-immigrant conspiracy theories, finds himself defending an immigrant-visa program against his fellow right-wingers. Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders, perhaps the most prominent leftist in the country, has taken to harshly criticizing the same program for undermining American workers.
California’s new minimum-wage law hadn’t even gone into effect before it was declared a disaster. Business groups and Republican politicians have argued for decades that minimum-wage increases harm the very workers they are supposed to help, and this one—passed in September 2023 and setting a salary floor of $20 an hour for fast-food workers—appeared to be no different.
The central contradiction of Donald Trump’s reelection is this: He owes his victory to the fact that millions of voters appear to have seen him as the stability candidate who would usher in a return to pre-COVID normalcy. But he has put forward a second-term agenda that would be far more radical and disruptive than anything he accomplished while in office.
To much of the country, the notion of Trump as the return-to-normal candidate is laughable.
The Federal Reserve has declared victory in the war on inflation. At its meeting today, the central bank announced that, after setting higher interest rates for two years in an effort to tame prices, it is finally beginning to bring them back down.
The Fed lowered interest rates by 0.50 percent (or 50 basis points), and has suggested that future cuts will be similarly sized.
Nuclear energy occupies a strange place in the American psyche—representing at once a dream of endless emissions-free power and a nightmare of catastrophic meltdowns and radioactive waste. The more prosaic downside is that new plants are extremely expensive: America’s most recent attempt to build a nuclear facility, in Georgia, was supposed to be completed in four years for $14 billion.
Democrats and Republicans don’t agree on much, but for a long time, they agreed on this: the more free trade, the better. Now they agree on the opposite: Free trade has gone too far.
On Tuesday, President Joe Biden announced plans to impose steep new tariffs on certain products made in China, including a 100 percent tariff on electric cars.
If there is one statistic that best captures the transformation of the American economy over the past half century, it may be this: Of Americans born in 1940, 92 percent went on to earn more than their parents; among those born in 1980, just 50 percent did. Over the course of a few decades, the chances of achieving the American dream went from a near-guarantee to a coin flip.What happened?One answer is that American voters abandoned the system that worked for their grandparents.